Will Climate Change Exacerbate the Economic Damage of Flood to Agricultural Production? A Case Study of Rice in Ha Tinh Province, Vietnam

In developing countries in general and Vietnam particular, flood induced economic loss of agriculture is a serious concern since the livelihood large populations depends on agricultural production. The objective this study was to examine if climate change would exacerbate damage production with case rice Huong Son District Ha Tinh Province, North-central Vietnam. applied modeling approach for prediction. Extreme precipitation its return periods were calculated by Generalized Value distribution method using historical daily observations output MRI-CGCM3 model. projected extreme data then employed as an input Mike Flood model modeling. Finally, integrated employing depth duration crop calendar used prediction potential Results show that comparison baseline period, increase 49.14% intensity expected, while frequency 5 times 2050s. As result, seriousness floods under impacts they become more intensified, deeper longer, consequently significantly. While level peak flow rise nearly 1 m, leading area inundated 12.61%, value over 21% 2050s compared period. findings present are useful long-term infrastructural planning order tackle flooding threats impacts.